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Ukraine’s generating capacities development keeping a large share of baseload NPPs and variable renewable generation using the Mixed Integer Linear Programming technique

Abstract

Ukraine’s Power Sector is facing the dramatic challenge – a necessity to essentially change its generating capacity structure caused mainly by such factors: the rapid growth of intermittent renewables, mainly wind and solar; a high share of obsolete coal-fired thermal power plants, which are not suitable to provide flexibility to the power system; seasonally dependent and very limited water resources for hydro power stations which could provide only limited flexibility and also a high share of baseload nuclear in a generation mix. Another challenge is a high share of a total country’s greenhouse gas emissions (about 68% of Ukrain’s total) and a huge volume of hazardous air pollutions emmited by coal-fired thermal power plants. These factors require a total redesign of current generating capacities structure. The easiest option is to implement flexible natural gas generation instead of inflexible coal-fired and nuclear generation, but due to a historically difficult situation with a natural gas supply, this option could potentially cause a negative influence on the country’s energy security. That is why one of the reasanoble options could be keeping baseload nuclear generation, gradually decommissioning coal-fired generation and implementing technologies which are improving flexibility of the Power System, such as battery energy storage systems. To assess the amount of required installed capacity of battery energy storages in the Ukrainian Power System according to the wind and solar generation installed capacities the mixed-integer linear programming mathematical model is proposed. The results of simulations show that there are options to keep the current level of baseload nuclear generation with essentially high amounts of renewables.

Authors

  • Sergii V Shulzhenko (Energy Research Institute, Institute of General Energy NAS of Ukraine)